Air superiority is critical to small- and large-scale military operation of the United States. Given China’s rapidly modernizing Air Force, the decision to ditch the F-22 Raptor could prove problematic. Will the J-20 threaten the U.S. ability to achieve air superiority in the Indo-Pacific? Is it time for the Raptor to rise again?
The J-20 is Challenging U.S. Air Power in the Pacific
Before we can understand the impact of the J-20, we must look at the past decades and the changes on the international stage. In particular, the end of the Cold War and the subsequent dissolution of the Soviet Union marked a shift in the balance of power in favor of the United States.
U.S. Air Superiority
After the threat of the Soviet Union disappeared, the U.S. was left without competition in the air domain. Despite the existence of advanced Soviet-era air defense systems, the development of U.S. stealth aircraft further increased their technological superiority. Therefore, the ability of the U.S. to access enemy airspace to establish air superiority has been uncontested until recently. Thus, the F-22 was the last fighter designed specifically to go head-to-head with advanced Soviet fighter in a peer-to-peer conflict.
Today, the Chinese PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has an advanced 5th gen. stealth fighter, which is fully operational. In contrast to the Russian Su-57, the Chinese J-20 is already available in substantial numbers and its production is being expanded.
Su-57
Felon
J-20
Mighty Dragon
F-22
Raptor
Where could the J-20 and F-22 encounter each other?
Before assuming superiority of one side, we need to take a look at the map to get a better understanding of the geography of the theater. The main features to focus on are the following:
- The Chinese coastline, which is heavily defended by long-range air defenses with theoretical ranges of up to 400 km
- The Paracel and Spratly Islands, as they are highly disputed territories and close to major shipping routes through the South China Sea
- The First Island Chain reaching from Japan to the Philippines and beyond, as it forms a natural barrier to the Pacific with the stategically important Taiwan in the middle
- The Second Island Chain, which runs from Japan to the island of Guam and all the way down to Indonesia
Below we take a closer look at the first island chain and its strategic importance for both the J-20 and the F-22.
J-20
The Chengdu J-20 is China’s first operational stealth fighter and makes the PRC the second country to deploy such technology on a large scale. It’s estimated range would allow the J-20 to operate far into the Western Pacific, which provides the PRC with a strike capability previously only available to the U.S. and its allies.
F-22
The F-22 Raptor is a 5th generation U.S. stealth fighter. Designed with air superiority in mind, the Raptor is a child of the threat environment of the late stages of the Cold War. Without a clear opponent after the fall of the Soviet Union, the Raptor’s capabilities are again in high demand. Is it still up to the job?
As can be seen, there are several bases in mainland China from which the J-20 can potentially operate. Because these bases are relatively evenly distributed along the coast, they would allow the J-20 to reach locations along the entire first island chain without the need for aerial refueling. Chosen between max. and min. estimates of 1,500 – 2,500 km, we chose 2,000 km as the potential combat-radius marked with the orange dashed line. However, the official combat-radius remains unknown to the public.
At first glance, the concentration of U.S. air bases in the region around South Korea and Japan underlines the strategic significance of both countries. This large base infrastructure dates back the Cold War era and forms the foundation of U.S. deterrence capabilities against China in the Western Pacific.
In the table below, the Distance to Chinese Coast is measured as the distance from the specific base to the Chinese coast, not the Chinese border. Additionally, we measured the distance without having to violate the airspace of other states, in this case North Korea and Russia.
Air Base (AB) | Country | Distance to Chinese Coast | J-20 reaches AB | Geography |
Osan/Kunsan | South Korea | 380 km | Yes | |
Kadena | Japan | 650 km | Yes | |
Various Bases | Philippines | ~ 850 - 1,300 km | Yes | |
Air Station Iwakuni | Japan | ~ 950 km | Yes | |
Yokota | Japan | ~ 1,600 km | Close | |
Misawa | Japan | ~ 1,700 km | Close | |
Andersen | Guam/USA | ~ 3,000 km | No |
Trouble in the First Island Chain
A Springboard to the Pacific Ocean
Since the first island chain contains the East and South China Sea, it is shaped like fence around China and its near seas. On the one hand, control over this island chain would be an advantage for the PLA to secure its coast and the shipping lines. Especially the South China Sea is a critical area for the Chinese economy. Having control over this body of water means less exposure to potential blockade from the United States, if ever a conflict breaks out.
The reality is quite the contrary, as China has little influence over the first island chain. It tries to gain influence on the diplomatic and economic level, but it can’t match the U.S. military’s foothold in the island chain. However, China has the advantage, when it comes to its naval presence within the waters of the first island chain. Although the U.S. has large naval and air bases along the island chain, it cannot match the total number, that the PLA Navy and Air Force can put up.
Cornerstone of Containment Strategy
The Island Chain Strategy emerged in the 1950s, when U.S. strategists developed a plan to contain the communist bloc. Although that strategy includes several island chains, the first island chain is undoubtedly the most prominent today. As it surrounds the entire Chinese coast, it presents a natural geographic barrier to contain China. On the one hand, it cuts off the PLA Navy from the Indo-Pacific and limits China’s project power capabilities beyond the first island chain. On the other hand, it offers only limited space for the deployment of U.S. forces. That makes larger troop concentrations and existing bases easy targets for China’s growing missile arsenal.
Due to the United States’ current focus on the Indo-Pacific, this Cold War relict has been reactivated to protect U.S. interests in the region. It is therefore a great advantage, that there are already numerous operational air bases along the island chain.
J-20 x F-22
F-22 – Guarding the First Island Chain
From the U.S. perspective, deploying the F-22 to the first island chain is key to strengthening conventional deterrence capabilities. This is particularly important to deter further Chinese expansion and counter the power projection of the PLA. Unfortunately, U.S. aircraft typically have shorter combat ranges, limiting their use. While aerial refueling can alleviate these constraints, it makes operations more complex and expensive. Since the U.S. has several bases along the first island chain, aircraft can be deployed more flexible. That is particularly important as the likelihood of air or missile attacks increases.
Since there are different estimates of the F-22’s combat range, we chose the conservative number of 870 km. On the map you can see how far the F-22 could reach without aerial refueling. However, it’s important to note, that all these bases are options, but it’s not likely, that the F-22 will deploy to all of them. A more realistic approach is to deploy the Raptor to key locations and rotate units depending on the situation.
Aside from the J-20 and other advanced Chinese fighters, there are also other threats to the F-22. For example, the Chinese operate a dense network of integrated air defense systems (IADS) along their coast. This poses a serious obstacle to U.S. air operations in the region. The PLA’s most powerful air defense systems can potentially reach a maximum range of up to 400 km. So, the PLA can theoretically close off the entire Chinese coast.
In reality, this air defense umbrella does not consist of one single layer surrounding the entire Chinese coast. Rather, it is a cluster of more or less interconnected systems, that cover important areas. The density of the air defenses can vary depending on the strategic significance of the location. Since not all locations are equally important, most systems will deploy to locations of great importance. Some examples of such locations would be:
- Area around Beijing with its political center
- Major urban areas to protect the economic centers
- The area close to the Taiwan Strait
- Bases in the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South china Sea
Despite the F-22’s stealth characteristics, Chinese advancements in radar and missile technology will eventually catch up to the Raptor.
J-20 – Contesting the First Island Chain
From the Chinese perspective, there is an significant need to increase deterrence against possible foreign intervention. Therefore, a fighter that can reach targets in the first island chain and beyond can increase their deterent potential. Particularly the threat of intercepting bombers, AWACS or ISR aircraft would make operations by foreign forces much more risky.
As already mentioned, the Chinese air defense incorporates many modern long-range systems like the HQ-9 and S-300/S-400. So, the J-20 could loiter underneath this secure umbrella and wait for larger, slow-flying targets being detected by Chinese AWACS. Then, it could approach under this protective umbrella until the targets come within range of its long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles.
On the other hand, it could also penetrate into the first island chain if necessary to strike high-value targets. Since the US never really had to worry about other countries deploying stealth fighters in comparable numbers, they never invested as much in their radar capabilities as its peer-competitors China and Russia. Thus, the J-20 could rely to a certain degree on its stealthy design to penetrate into the first island chain.
On the contrary, operating beyond the first island chain will come at a high risk, even for the J-20. Due to the large intelligence apparatus of the U.S., which consists of space/land/surface- and air-based sensors, continuous operations beyond the first island chain does not appear feasible.
On a larger scale, however, China seeks to project power to reshape the balance of power in the region. For this reason, the J-20 could serve them well, if its assumed capabilities turned out to be true. In some respects, the J-20 could even be considered superior to U.S. fighters, as estimates of its combat-radius are around 2,000 km. This would also allow for operations within the first island chain and beyond without aerial refueling. All in all, the J-20 could be a reasonable strategic choice given China’s objectives in the Indo-Pacific region.
A Difficult Legacy
With all enemies gone after the Cold War, the F-22 was left alone to dominate the skies. But without any peer-adversary, the need for the F-22 was questioned. In the course of this development, the initial order of the F-22s was cut. Today, there are only 186 units of the Raptor in the U.S.’ fleet.
After the program was discontinued in 2009, the last F-22 rolled off the assembly line at the end of 2011. In the same year, discussions reignited to reconsider the decision of the discontinuation of the F-22, given the concerns over the J-20. With the F-35 still years away from its introduction, the F-22 came reasonably close to a revival. However, the option to restart the production line was eventually rejected due to the high costs.
Subsequently, the size of the fleet will decrease over time, as no replacements can be produced. Moreover, maintenance and repairs to keep these birds operational is another weakspot. Eventually, more than once the plan was to retire the oldest planes to free up some spare parts and keep the rest of the fleet alive.
Aside from the cost and general uncertainty surrounding the J-20, it is important to note that the PLA was nowhere near as strong in 2011 as it is today. Just a year later, after Xi Jinping became general secretary of the CCP in 2012, the PLA’s modernization began. From then on, the PLA continued to grow and gain modern combat capabilities in all domains. Another important step came with the 2015 military reform, which sought to restructure the PLA’s command structure. As a result, the PLA was able to introduce modern joint operations.
J-20 – Out of the Blue?
Interestingly, when the J-20 attracted the attention of experts for the first time in 2011, reports and estimates implied a very grim picture of the prospects for U.S. air dominance in the Indo-Pacific. At that moment, the decision to cancel the further production of the F-22 has a already been made. As the threat of the J-20 did not materialize immediately, the U.S.’ reaction was very reserved. Since then, the Chinese had plenty of time to refine the J-20’s design to sort out the initial problems.
At the time, the F-22 was the only equivalent to the J-20. But with the F-22 on the sidelines, sooner or later the U.S. would have been left without a counter to the J-20. If the J-20 had emerged as the much-touted threat to U.S. air superiority in the Indo-Pacific, China would have been in an advantageous position to project power in the region.
However, the J-20 is still something of a black box today. On the one hand, it’s possible, that this Chinese stealth aircraft is a capable platform, that could wreak havoc on its enemies. On the other hand, it is not known how capable its systems really are and how well it is integrated into the PLA’s version of a joint battle management.
Impact of the J-20
Eventually one might assume, that the rejection to restart the production of the F-22 was based on the assessment, that the J-20 did not pose as great a threat to U.S. air superiority as originally thought. However, that has changed over the last few years.
Currently, the total number of operational stealth fighters of the U.S. is still higher than the highest estimates of operational J-20s. However, if one considers only the F-22 as an equivalent to the J-20, the U.S.’ advantage is rapidly diminishing. In 2023, estimates of the number of operational J-20s range from 150 to 200+. Therefore, there may already be more J-20s than F-22s in service.
Further, one must remember, that the majority of F-22s is not operating in the Indo-Pacific, but all over the globe. On the contrary, the J-20 only operates from mainland China with a logistical support and maintenance network close by. Because of this regional advantage, the concentration of the J-20 will be much higher than that of the F-22.
In summary, the J-20 gives the PLA Air Force the ability to conduct precision strikes within all areas of strategic interest to China. In summary, the J-20 gives the PLA Air Force the ability to conduct precision strikes within all areas of strategic interest to China. Keeping in mind, that one many of these interest lie within area, that are part or close to the first island chain, confrontation is foreseeable.
F-22 – Mature, but not yet Old
It is undeniable, that the F-22 and the J-20 are both children of different times. The F-22’s primary role was to dominate the skies over Europe and compete against the most advanced Soviet fighter aircraft. But after the fall of the Soviet Union, the F-22’s mission in the modern era remained uncertain.
Then, the Raptor is too advanced and expensive to be used extensively in the War on Terror. But the return of great power competition in the Indo-Pacific once again requires a capable air superiority fighter. At this point, that duty call may be too late for the F-22 to fulfill its original purpose. However, as a mid-term solution to counter Chinese air power in the Indo-Pacific, the Raptor’s capabilities are still relevant today. In the end, the question remains: Is the Raptor up to the task?
The Development of the J-20 is Going On
Similar to the F-22, the J-20 was designed to gain air superiority in contested airspace. Unlike the Raptor, the Mighty Dragon was developed to fight in a modern informatized war. And since the U.S. isn’t leaving the Indo-Pacific, the J-20 won’t become obsolete any time soon. Moreover, the development of the J-20 is still in full swing. For example, ongoing engine problems are prompting the Chinese defense industry to develop indigenous solutions such as the WS-15.
A two-seat version called the J-20S is also in development. Finally, the integration of China’s current go-to air-to-air missile (PL-15) suggests further potential for future upgrades. Therefore, the J-20 has not yet matured. However, it shows the potential to become a capable platform.
The J-20 is a Wake Up Call for the United States
Ultimately, the impact of the J-20 on the United States and its allies is not so much a loss of the ability to achieve air superiority, but rather a revelation of China’s ability to develop advanced weapons in sufficient quantities and in a short period of time.
As western powers got comfortable relying on their technological superiority to assert their dominance in the geopolitical landscape, their focus shifted away from conventional warfare. With the last two decades marked by the US global war on terror and the protracted wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the PRC seized this opportunity to catch up. So at the time, that the U.S. was fighting against asymmetrical threats, the PLA was preparing for conventional war.
The Fate of the F-22 is Forseeable, but not yet Sealed
When it comes to the F-22’s legacy, it is difficult to assess its impact on the modern battlefield because the last two decades of U.S. warfare have largely been characterized by asymmetric threats. For example, as tensions rise between China and the United States, the F-22 could quickly become relevant again. Its deployment to Kadena Air Base in Japan as a means to replace older F-15 fighters can be considered as a small step in that direction. In such event, a rapidly evolving situation could see the Raptor fully reemerging.
But since production has already stopped, time is slowly but steadily running out for the Raptor. Therefore, it is likely, that the Raptor will either make its main appearance on the battlefield in the Indo-Pacific or it will be quietly overshadowed by newer platforms until its final retirement. In any case, the Raptor remains a major stepping stone in stealth development.
Explore the South China Sea via Map
Sources
https://csbaonline.org/uploads/documents/Air-to-Air-Report-.pdf, S. 71
[2]https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Article/104506/
[3] https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/04/why-would-the-us-air-force-retire-12-f-22-raptor-stealth-fighters/
[4] https://www.businessinsider.com/how-china-j20-stealth-jet-compares-to-us-f22-fighter-2020-11
[5] https://www.jber.jb.mil/News/Articles/Article/290891/lockheed-martin-rolls-out-final-f-22-raptor/
[6] https://eurasiantimes.com/f-22-raptors-worlds-most-powerful-fighter-jets-deployed-to-asia-in-big-numbers-to-counter-chinese-muscle-flexing/
[7] https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/07/a-fleet-of-25-f-22-raptor-stealth-fighters-will-soon-train-for-war-in-the-pacific/
[8] https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/11/12/air-bases-are-at-risk-without-the-agile-combat-employment-approach/
[9] https://eurasiantimes.com/us-trains-its-f-22-raptors-with-japans-f-15-f-35-fighter-jets-china/
https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/sukhoi-su-57-felon-fighter-jet-russia/
Attribution
Picture #1 – Su-57 Felon – By Anna Zvereva from Tallinn, Estonia – Sukhoi Design Bureau, 054, Sukhoi Su-57, CC BY-SA 2.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=87441875
Picture #2 – J-20 Mighty Dragon – By Alert5 – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=52859253
Editor’s Note
All illustrations, tables, pictures and given scenarios in this article are for explanatory purposes only and do not show any information, which is not publicly available. The article and its content refrains from making any political statement.
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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