Modern drones can execute much more complex tasks than we might think. Providing reconnaissance, additional firepower or fuel. From simple support, over manned-unmanned teaming to the creation of swarms, there are apparently no limits to drones on the future battlefield.
Will the F-35 be leading a swarm of drones like a loyal flock of seagulls?
F-35 x Drones
Drones can be Used for a Variety of Missions
In today’s thinking, future drone developments are largely considered for multi-purpose use. Over the past two decades, drones proved to be a viable platform, and the U.S. recognized their potential for a variety of missions. Nevertheless, drones are still used today primarily for intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance (ISR) missions. However, their use for offensive operations is steadily increasing. Given that potential of advanced drone platforms with improving stealth capabilities, military planners also considering drones for deep strike mission. The main reason for this is that it would allow U.S. forces to attack targets deep within enemy territory. Beyond that, the focus is steadily shifting to using drones in combination with manned aircraft in order to increase increase capabilities. A point often overlooked, it allows to create mass, which is particulary important regarding the rapid growth of the Chinese air force.
ISR
RQ-4 Global Hawk
Fuel
MQ-25 Stingray
Strike
MQ-20 Avenger
To meet all these challenges combining manned and unmanned platforms into a cohesive team is becoming icreasingly popular. Therefore, new concepts are emerging that consider drones as loyal wingmen to expand the capabilities of manned fighters. On the one hand, drones could supplement a regular fighter formation to provide addtional capabilities. On the other hand, they could replace manned aircraft. The latter variant would subsequently free up aircraft to form additional formations.
Drones can Enhance the F-35’s Capabilities
Specialized platforms in particular are becoming increasingly important as the F-35 also has its own limitations. Hence, drones will most likely be used for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), Electronic Warfare (EW), Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD), decoy or ground-strike missions. That will increase the F-35’s range, situational awareness and weapons capabilities and improve its survivability and lethality. In turn that would allow the F-35 would rather process information, decide and coordinate actions than intervene directly.
In comparison to other fighter aircraft in the U.S. inventory, the F-35 is a platform suitable for joint use with drones. Thanks to its networking capabilities, powerful sensor suite and continuous updates, the F-35 has the best foundation for collaborating with unmanned technology. Therefore, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) or commonly referred to as drones can significantly improve the capabilities of the F-35.
The Lesser Known Benefits of Drones
Can Drones Help Improve the F-35’s Low Readiness?
By the end of 2022, the U.S. fleet had 450+ F-35s in its inventory. In early 2023, only around 55% of them were mission capable. Even more concerning, the rate was even lower for fully mission capable F-35s. That value ranks among the worst of all aircraft in use by the United States. To be fair, the fighter constantly faced issues, and the stealth design makes it more expensive to maintain. But there are also reasons for these low rates, that are less well known.
- Since 2017 repairs of F-35 components have taken twice as long as was originally expected. Instead of (ideally) 60 days, the average repair time in 2023 was 141 days.
- The F-35’s engine issues were also a reason for this poor performance. However, the trend has been more positive since mid-2022.
- Exceeding the goal of 10% of F-35s being non-mission capable due to maintenance since 2020 has contributed significantly to the overall issue.
- The shortage of spare parts and maintenance equipment led to a further decline of the F-35’s operational readiness.
These circumstances do not reflect well on the operational readiness of the F-35. In contrast, the MQ-9A’s mission capable rate is very high, which indicates greater efficiency of drones. If the critical issues surrounding the supply-chain, maintenance and pilot training for unmanned systems can be resolved, it could be a major relieve for the U.S. Armed Forces given their capacity shortcomings. However, that would only be true, if the demand for the F-35 was lower, due to drones taking over some of the F-35’s duties. If on the contrary drones would just be an additional asset, that must be supplied, repaired and maintained it would put even more stress on the F-35.
Can Drones Compensate for Low Recruitment Rates?
A lesser-known but more important challenge facing the United States is the growing shortage of men and women to fly American aircraft. Even though the U.S. has a large number of aircraft, the pilots seats will remain empty, if recruitments numbers stay low. Then, the U.S. will face a substantial problem. Since all power projection or the fulfillment security committments requires large numbers of personnel, the U.S. can’t help but revise their recruitment strategy. Consequently, it will become more difficult for the US to maintain its dominant position in the Indo-Pacific as its personnel problems worsen.
The use of drones has the chance to make the recruitment of pilots easier. For example, the medical requirements could be lower, because the pilot will experience less physical stress. Additionally, drone pilots can operate from U.S. soil, which is a huge advantage and can be attractive to recruits.
Leading a Flock of Drones
Current Trajectory of the Future Roles of Drones
While demand of mission capable aircraft currently exceeds supply, pilots are also becoming a scarce resource. In this precarious situation, drones could help reduce these capacity shortcomings. So, the incentive to integrate a larger variety of drones into the force is growing. An expression of this trend can be found in the greater focus on projects such as the Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) or Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T). Nevertheless, manned aircraft like the F-35 or the upcoming 6th gen. aircraft will still be required in sufficient numbers.
Eventually, aerial refueling drones like the MQ-25 Stingray will enable more complex missions deep within enemy airspace. Additional capacities of stealthy ISR drones like the RQ-170 Sentinel will improve the situational awareness, even inside enemy airspace. By providing advanced communications, the F-35 could then find fire solutions more quickly. Furthermore, drones like the XQ-58 Valkyrie or MQ-28 Ghost Bat, that are capable of air-to-ground and air-to-air combat can bring more munitions into the fight and carry out strikes while the F-35 remains at a safer distance.
Will the F-35’s Role also Change in the Future?
This will allow the F-35 to have greater operational flexibility, as drones not only augment the fighter’s own capabilities, but also add new ones to the mix. Hence, the F-35’s importance will increase, as it will be the node between all these elements. As a result, the F-35 is more likely to orchestrate the drones attached to it than directly engage in combat. This will inevitably change the role of the F-35 in future operations.
Moreover, other assets within the network could also use the data provided by the F-35. These include, for example, C2, AWACS, tankers and bombers like the B-2 or B-21. Hence, forces within the theater could also benefit from the increasing use of unmanned assets. Eventually, the F-35 is getting the chance to show its true force multiplying capabilities by being the centerpiece of that collaboration.
- AWACS aircraft can obtain high-quality data from these drones through the F-35 to increase situational awareness for all forces in the theater.
- High-quality intelligence and a higher-resolution piscture of the battlefield will then help Command & Control (C2) aircraft with their decision-making.
- Long-range bombers can use target data from one of the F-35’s ISR drones and use it to carry out a strike from stand-off distance, while reamining at a safe distance.
In conclusion, mastering the combination of manned and unmanned technology will be key for maintaining long-term air dominance. One step is to enable the F-35 to conduct a greater variety of missions by teaming it up with drones. These drones must then be equipped according to the mission requirements. This will increase both survivability and mission effectiveness, even when operating in contested airspace. Moreover, adding more drones to the current fleet means more capacity is available, resulting in higher sortie rates.
Shaping a Compact Strike Package of Drones around the F-35
Information is the lifeblood of the precision strike. So it is important to have sufficient ISR capabilities to support the offensive operations. This is even more important today as the battlefield becomes more and more transparent. Recognizing this, major powers sought to expand their ISR capabilities in quality and quantity. On the positive side, this provides a more comprehensive picture of the battlefield and allows the enemy’s weaknesses to be exploited. Furthermore, movements are way easier to detect and track, allowing for rapid attacks that throw the enemy into disarray. On the negative side, the enemy also enjoys these advantages.
In this case, the ISR drones represent the sensor elements of a strike package consisting of a flight of F-35s and drones. Or to put it another way: They are the eyes and ears of the F-35. Moreover, by improving the situational awareness, threats can be identified early, increasing the survivability of the entire strike package. For this reason, deploying multiple drones with a F-35 flight will ultimately increase resilience in a high-threat environment.
What is currently missing is the integration of ground-strike and especially air-to-air capable drones operating as the F-35’s loyal wingmen. While unmanned platforms have already proven their ground-strike capabilities, air-to-air capabilities is still new territory for them. However, first tests were carried out successfully years ago.
As the development of manned-unmanned teaming improves, it’s only a matter of time until drones and fighters form a coherent strike package capable of executing missions deep into enemy territory.
F-35
The F-35 is a multirole 5th generation stealth fighter of the U.S. armed forces. Its advanced networking capabilities allow for future manned-unmanned team up. In that case, the F-35 acts like the command node, which is accompanied by a swarm of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), which serve as in ISR, Strike and Refueling roles to support the F-35’s mission.
ISR Drone
An unmanned aerial system (UAS) with intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. Gathers and shares information across all domains in order to improve situational awareness. Provides decison makers and action takers with relevant data. The use of UAS for that purpose has increased, due to the advantages of these systems compared to manned platforms. Stealth, endurance and a powerful sensor suite is essential to perform in contested environments.
Strike Drone
An unmanned aerial system (UAS) with strike capabilities. Capable to conduct precision strikes against ground/surface targets and defend against aerial threats with air-to-air missiles. They can serve either as an offensively oriented asset to support manned platforms or as an additional defensive layer for military facilities or carrier strike groups. Hence, UAS can greatly increase U.S. combat capabilities.
Refueling Drone
The MQ-25 Stingray is an aerial refueling drone, which is expected to enter service with the U.S. Navy in 2025. In the future, the Stingray might also serve in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. It is also a cornerstone for exploring manned-unmanned team capabilities, so that for example an E-2 Hawkeye can task the MQ-25 with an ISR mission on the fly.
J-20
The Chengdu J-20 is China’s first operational stealth fighter and makes the PRC the second country to deploy such technology on a large scale. It’s estimated range would allow the J-20 to operate far into the western pacific, which provides the PRC with a strike capability previously only available to the U.S. and its allies.
KJ-2000
The KJ-2000 Mainring is an Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft, operated by the PLA Air Force. It can track up to 100 targets simultaneously and is reported to habe an estimated radar range of 470 km. Currently, the PLA Air Force operates four KJ-2000.
Drones and the F-35 Operating as a Strike Package
The following hypothetical scenario should illustrate how such a strike package could operate.
- Enemy AWACS or radar sites will detect the strike package.
First, enemy early warning platforms would detect the forward-operating ISR drones. Given the current design philosophy, which emphasizes stealth, the drones could get very close before enemy AWACS can detect them. When targeted by air defense, the drones flying in front of the F-35 can act like an additional layer for protection.
- The strike package must be able to deal with enemy air defenses.
Some of these drones could also launch decoys in order to draw attention away from the F-35. On the other hand, if some of them were designed as attritable assets, they could also mimic the radar cross section of one of the more valuable platforms themself to deceive enemy air defenses. In this way, a low cost drone could absorb incoming surface-to-air missiles. Given that cost is an important factor in a conflict, it would be important to take that aspect into account.
- The F-35 remains at a safe distance during the engagement with enemy interceptors.
Once detected by AWACS, interceptors such as the J-20 would attempt to identify and engage the intruders. In fact, the ISR drones would be the first to detect the threat and probably the first to be discovered by the enemy. On the positive side, the F-35 will stay at a relatively save distance during the engagement. In this situation, the F-35 can leverage its superior situational awareness, while remains undetected.
- Air-to-air capable drones will engage the enemy interceptors.
Consequently, the F-35 could then authorize a strike against the enemy interceptor aircraft. For this purpose, ISR drones will provide target data in order to find fire solutions for the strike drones. Equipped with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles (BVRAAM) like the future AIM-260, strike drones will then engage the target. In order to complete such a complex mission, efficient communication is essential to complete all steps of the kill chain.
Great Potential and Some Critical Drawbacks of Modern Drones
Despite increasing enthusiasm, the use of unmanned platforms is not without risks and drawbacks.
- There is still discussion about ethical question.
From an ethical perspective, it’s important to ensure that humans have control over any decision, that involves deadly force. If that is to change, lethal force could be applied more unconstrained. The result could be a higher casualty rate among the civilian population.
- The communication network is still a weak spot of drones.
Furthermore, when operating in highly contested airspace, securing communications is necessary to prevent interference from the enemy. Electronic warfare and jamming systems are widespread threats to communications. A permanent communication failure could have catastrophic results ans result in the loss of one or multiple platforms.
- Limitations of the manned platform must be taken into account.
The F-35 itself has some limitations, which also put some restraints to the accompanying drones. For example, endurance and time on station are limited by the manned platform. Eventually, the initial advantage of a cost-efficient solution will gradually diminish, because drones also become become more complex. The fact that more capabilities are being integrated into drones leads to higher production and maintenance costs, and also requires better training for personnel.
- The platform needs constant updates to stay competitive.
Another often overlooked issue is the need of constant software updates. This in itself entails ongoing development costs and maintenance. Hence, to meet the growing demands of complex air operations in contested environments, drones are becoming more expensive.
Increasing Importance of Drones for the Future
Drones will definitely play a crucial role in future conventional conflicts. The question therefore arises as to what additional roles these platforms can fulfill to maximize their potential.
After all, the versatility of unmanned platforms can help adding new capabilities to the force and relieve manned aircraft from overstraining. With this in mind, the U.S. could also take a firmer stance against PLS power projection. At a higher level, that will be an advantage to the U.S.’ posture in the Indo-Pacific.
One aspect of drone warfare will be deterring grey zone tactics from other forces. For instance, long-endurance drones could much more easily detect and monitor grey zone tactics of the PRC’s Maritime Militia. Drones could thus act as a deterrence by detecting such activities.
Since the U.S. relies on its global base infratructure, drones can help defend these bases. Firstly by providing early warning against impending strikes and secondly by reducing the logistical footprint. In particular, the very remote bases in the Indo-Pacific could strengthening their resilience and increase their independence from regular support from the continental United State.
Furthermore, the combination of drones and manned aircraft can make a difference when mass is a critical factor. A war of attrition will consume assets, whether they are highly advanced or mediocre. In order to deter an enemy that has the numerical advantage, drones might be the right choice to dissuade this enemy from counting on that advantage. However, the risks that nations are willing to take when they interests are at stake may prove this claim wrong.
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Addendum
[i] https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/ASPJ/journals/Volume-34_Issue-1/F-McCabe.pdf, S. 28, Used as source. There are different ranges of the HQ-9 available.
Editor’s Note
All illustrations, tables, pictures and given scenarios in this article are for explanatory purposes only and do not show any information, which is not publicly available. The article and its content refrains from making any political statement.
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.